Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty in water management is based on either intuition, heuristics and experience of water managers or on expert assessments all of which are only of limited use for water managers in practice. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable practitioners to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We applied and tested recently developed parameters that aim to shed light on the framing of uncertainty in two sub-basins of the Rhine. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are synthesized in a cross-checking list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands-on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check-list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Key words: water management, future uncertainties, framing of uncertainties, hands-on decision aid, tools for practice, robust strategies, social learnin

DYPHORA—a dynamic model for the rate of photosynthesis of algae

Experimental data obtained from different cultures of phytoplankton indicate that photosynthesis (P) depends on light intensity (I) in a dynamic way. Therefore, static P/I curves relating photosynthesis to the instantaneous light may not be adequate to describe the activity of algal cells in lakes or oceans where mixing can cause a complex pattern of light variation. The model DYPHORA (DYnamic model for the PHOtosynthetic Rate of Algae) describes the response of photosynthesis to light using two characteristic times, the response time to increasing light (τr), and the light inhibition decay time (τr). The model agrees well with available experiments if τr is chosen between 0.5 and 5 min, and τr, between 30 and 120 min. It explains the occurrence of the well-documented afternoon depression as well as the decrease of integrated long-term rates of photosynthesis with increasing light. Although the presented comparison of experimental data and model results cannot serve as a proof for DYPHORA in a strict sense, the structural relationship between P and I can nevertheless point out inadequacies in the common interpretation of static P/I relationships. The model can also serve as a tool to test hypotheses regarding the selective role of mixing in the competition between algal specie

Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know

Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize uncertainty in a broader way¿relative to its role, meaning, and relationship with participants in decision making¿because it is from this understanding that problems and solutions emerge. Under this view, solutions do not exclusively consist of eliminating or reducing uncertainty, but of reframing the problems as such so that they convey a different meaning. To this end, we propose a relational approach to uncertainty analysis. Here, we elaborate on this new conceptualization of uncertainty, and indicate some implications of this view for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management. We present an example as an illustration of these concepts. Key words: adaptive management; ambiguity; frames; framing; knowledge relationship; multiple knowledge frames; natural resource management; negotiation; participation; social learning; uncertainty; water managemen

How multilevel societal learning processes facilitate transformative change: A comparative case study analysis on flood management

Sustainable resources management requires a major transformation of existing resource governance and management systems. These have evolved over a long time under an unsustainable management paradigm, e.g., the transformation from the traditionally prevailing technocratic flood protection toward the holistic integrated flood management approach. We analyzed such transformative changes using three case studies in Europe with a long history of severe flooding: the Hungarian Tisza and the German and Dutch Rhine. A framework based on societal learning and on an evolutionary understanding of societal change was applied to identify drivers and barriers for change. Results confirmed the importance of informal learning and actor networks and their connection to formal policy processes. Enhancing a society's capacity to adapt is a long-term process that evolves over decades, and in this case, was punctuated by disastrous flood events that promoted windows of opportunity for change

Managing change toward adaptive water management through social learning

The management of water resources is currently undergoing a paradigm shift toward a more integrated and participatory management style. This paper highlights the need to fully take into account the complexity of the systems to be managed and to give more attention to uncertainties. Achieving this requires adaptive management approaches that can more generally be defined as systematic strategies for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of previous management actions. This paper describes how the principles of adaptive water management might improve the conceptual and methodological base for sustainable and integrated water management in an uncertain and complex world. Critical debate is structured around four questions: (1) What types of uncertainty need to be taken into account in water management? (2) How does adaptive management account for uncertainty? (3) What are the characteristics of adaptive management regimes? (4) What is the role of social learning in managing change? Major transformation processes are needed because, in many cases, the structural requirements, e.g., adaptive institutions and a flexible technical infrastructure, for adaptive management are not available. In conclusion, we itemize a number of research needs and summarize practical recommendations based on the current state of knowledge

Towards a relational concept of uncertainty: incorporating the human dimension

In this paper, we extend the conceptualization of uncertainties in natural resources management. Uncertainties come in different kinds, as it is apparent from the multiple classifications and typologies of uncertainties in the literature. Here, we re-contextualize uncertainty in a broader way - its role, meaning and relationship with knowing and acting persons - because it is from this relationship where problems and solutions emerge. We argue that uncertainties have a relational aspect that has to do with how decision makers relate, through their knowledge and actions, to the human-technology-environmental systems to be managed ¿ an aspect that is not fully taken into account in the current literature. Our aim in this paper is to include the human dimension more fully in the conceptualization of uncertainties by (1) adding ambiguity as an important kind of uncertainty, (2) re-conceptualizing uncertainty as relational, and (3) indicating some implications of this reconceptualized overview for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management